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Waymo CEO Explains Why Camera-Only Self-Driving Falls Short

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著者: BeauHD

🤖 AI Summary

WAYMOの共同CEO、ドミトリ・ドルゴフは、カメラだけによる自動運転が完全な自走性能に到達しない理由について、最も技術的な説明を行った。彼は、「弱いセンサー」は「超人的性能」に達する前に安全限界に到達すると主張した。

ドルゴフはY Combinatorのスタートアップスクールでの講演の中で、WAYMOが近20年間で学んだ教訓を語り、センサーの種類について明確な答えを出した。「人間はただ目だけでも運転ができるので、それが存在証明だ。人間レベルの性能や補助製品を作るなら、それが合理的だ」と述べた後、その落とし穴は「完全な自走性能と超人的な性能を目指す場合、「弱いセンサー」は早すぎる安全限界に到達してしまう」と指摘した。

ドルゴフはカメラ、レーザーレーダー、ミリ波レーダーが互換的であり、バックアップ関係ではないことを強調し、「これらの異なるセンサーモデリティは互いのバックアップではなく、一つのセンサーで得られる視界以上のものを生み出す」と説明した。さらに、複数のセンサーにより物理的な故障に対する保護が可能になり、「完全な自動運転のための「指数関数的な9段階の登り」を築くのに貢献する」と述べた。

ドルゴフはカメラだけのシステムが短期間で大幅に向上した後、それが必要とする性能よりも早く plateau に達すること警告した。また、レーザーレーダーに関するコスト議論に対して反論し、「ハードウェアコストが引き下がるにつれて有効な数字は短い期間のものだ」と述べた。

この記事では、WAYMO CEOがカメラのみの自走性能に対する批判を展開し、多様なセンサーを使用することが安全性和技術性の向上に寄与することを強調している。
Longtime Slashdot reader AmiMoJo shares a report from Electrek: Waymo co-CEO Dmitri Dolgov laid out the clearest technical case yet for why cameras alone can't take a self-driving system to full autonomy, arguing that "weak sensing" hits a safety ceiling long before it reaches superhuman performance. [...] Dolgov made the comments in a talk at Y Combinator's Startup School, walking through the lessons Waymo has learned building its driver over close to two decades. He put the sensor question on the table plainly: "there's been a long-standing debate about what kind of sensors do you actually need for autonomous driving." His answer draws the line that camera-only advocates tend to skip right past. "Humans of course can drive with just eyes, so there's that proof of existence," he said. "If the goal were to just approximately match human performance or to build an assist product, that's a very reasonable way to go." Then the catch. If you're targeting full autonomy and strongly superhuman performance, he said, "you find that weak sensing just leads to a safety curve that flattens out way too early." Dolgov said that cameras, lidar, and radar are complementary rather than redundant: "These different sensing modalities, they're not backups to each other," and combining them produces a view "vastly superior to what you get with any one sensor." He said multiple sensor types also protect against physical failures, such as a leaf or branch blocking a camera, while helping Waymo climb the "exponential ladder of nines" required for fully driverless safety. Dolgov warned that camera-only systems may improve quickly before plateauing "way before the performance that is required by your product." He also pushed back on the cost argument against lidar, calling it "a number that has a fairly short shelf life" as hardware costs continue to fall.

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New Spinning Drone Hides In Plain Sight

🤖 AI Summary

北華大學の研究チームは、高速回転を利用した「モーションブラー」を用いて完全に見えないドローンを開発しました。この技術により、ファンが消えるように見える原理と同じく、ドローンが25回転/秒で高速回転することで人間の目からは見えにくくなります。

研究チームはまず、計算モデルを使って安定した飛行を可能にする約2万通りのドローン設計を生成し、次に人工知能(AI)と最適化アルゴリズムを利用して主要な部品(モーター、プロペラ、基板、カウンターバランス、バッテリーなど)を繰り返し配置換えました。その後、さまざまな構成案の中から最適なドローンの配置を見つけるためのアルゴリズムを使用し、実世界の100枚の背景画像上で各ドローンを回転させたシミュレーションを行い、人間の視覚モデルを使ってどれだけ見えにくいか評価しました。最も見えにくい500種類を選出し、さらに最適化アルゴリズムによって部品の配置を見直して評価を下げる作業を行いました。

このドローンは「ファントム・ツイスト」と名付けられ、今後の改良ではより透明な素材や静かになったプロペラを使用することでより見えにくくする計画です。7月16日にシドニーで開催された「ロボティクス:科学とシステムズ2026」で研究結果が発表されました。
To design invisible drones, researchers have tried camouflage, transparent materials and light-bending optical systems. But engineers at Northwestern University used "motion blur," which an announcement from the school notes is the effect that makes fast-spinning fans seem to disappear. "The drone spins up to 25 times per second, which is too fast for the human eye to see clearly. While it isn't completely invisible, it morphs into a ghostly smudge that seamlessly blends into the background... " To design the drone, the Northwestern team first used a computational model to generate roughly 20,000 drone configurations capable of stable flight. Then, they used artificial intelligence (AI) and optimization algorithms to repeatedly rearrange the drones' major components, including a motor, propeller, circuit board, counterweight and batteries. After sifting through many different configurations, the algorithms determined the ideal placement of the drone's components to minimize its visibility from virtually every viewing angle while allowing for stable flight. After selecting promising candidates, the engineers simulated each drone spinning in flight and overlaid those images a hundred real-world backgrounds. Then, they used a perception model that approximates human vision to determine how noticeable each design appeared. Designs that blended into their surroundings received lower visibility scores. The team selected the 500 lowest-scoring designs and applied the optimization algorithm, which repeatedly adjusted the positions of components to further minimize those scores. "The design process was fully automated," [said Northwestern's associate CS professor Michael Rubenstein, who led the work]. "Then, when we were confident that a drone met all our criteria, we built it." They've named the drone "Phantom Twist"," and plan to design future iterations with more transparent materials or quieter propulsion to make it even less noticeable. The Northwestern team presented the work on July 16 at Robotics: Science and Systems 2026 in Sydney, Australia... Thanks to long-time Slashdot reader fahrbot-bot for sharing the news.

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Used EV Prices are Now Going Up in America

🤖 AI Summary

アメリカで中古電気自動車(EV)の価格が上昇しています。 CNBCによると、Used EVsは過去に高価な維持費や販売価格の低下により「有名」でした。しかし今年、米国の中古EVの価格は1月から6月までで5.1%上昇し(7月の中間まででは年間で7%上昇)、これが一般的には起こらない状況であるとRecurrentの分析は述べています。

この傾向は一貫しており、Cox Automotiveの業界洞察部長Stephanie Valdez Streatyによると、25台中21台の中古EVモデルが価格を上げたそうです。しかし、中古EVの供給量が多いにもかかわらず価格が上昇していることが不思議とされています。

消費者の需要増加にはいくつかの要因があります。高原油価格やインフレーションによる全体的な費用対効果が主な理由だと言われています。また、6月の販売統計によると、中古EVの販売量は前年比20%上昇し、一方で新規EVの販売量は約28%減少しました。

この記事によれば、新規EVは全新車販売の5.4%を占めていますが、中古EVは2.4%と少ないです。
Electric vehicles have historically been "notorious" for losing their resale value, reports CNBC. But this year prices for used EVs in the U.S. "are up 5.1% from January to June 2026, according to a Recurrent analysis published this month." The trend continued into the second half of the year: Prices are up 7% year to date through mid-July, it said. Recurrent compared EVs according to the same make and model year across 108 combinations and weighted price growth according to inventory volume. "Used EVs are appreciating, which almost never happens," according to an e-mailed Recurrent statement about the analysis. Other auto analysts found a similar trend... Price growth for used EVs has been broad-based, said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, the director of industry insights at Cox Automotive, a market research firm. Twenty-one of the 25 used EV models with the highest sales volume increased in price between January and June this year, she said... [T]he price growth for used EVs this year has been all the more surprising because it has happened despite a high supply of used EVs hitting the market — which, all else being equal, would generally cause prices to fall, experts said... There are several factors juicing consumer demand for used EVs, experts said. Among them are high gasoline prices due to the Iran war, which have pushed more consumers to consider fuel-efficient options, experts said... Overall affordability is another big factor, against a backdrop of inflation that has remained above policymakers' target of 2% for five or so years, auto experts said. The dynamic has pushed more consumers toward the used car market more broadly. Two interesting statistics from the article: "Used EV sales were up 20% in June versus a year earlier, while sales of new EVs were down about 28%, according to Cox Automotive data." New EVs accounted for 5.4% of total new-vehicle sales in June, while the market share for used EVs was just 2.4%, according to Cox Automotive data.

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